Mallard – Complete Waterfowl Ballistic Data
This page provides a scientific ballistic analysis of the mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) based on pellet penetration, pellet density and lethality probability.
All data is derived from exterior ballistics modelling and anatomical constraints of the species.
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Important note on interpretation
Penetration values, expected hits per bird, and identified limiting factors are derived from a probabilistic ballistic model.
Before interpreting these tables, readers are encouraged to review how the data is constructed and what defines ethical range limits.
Species Overview
The mallard is the most widespread duck species in North America.
Average adult mass ranges from 2.4 to 3.3 lbs depending on sex and season.
The mallard presents a relatively elongated profile on water and in flight, with vital organs located deep behind the breast muscles.
Anatomy and Lethal Zones
Effective lethal zones include:
- head and cervical spine,
- neck,
- heart–lung complex,
- wing bones and shoulder girdle,
- spinal column.
Hits outside these zones often result in wounded birds rather than instant lethality.
Target Surface and Penetration Requirements
The effective frontal target surface of a mallard is approximately 38 to 40 square inches.
Based on anatomical depth and tissue resistance, the minimum penetration required to reliably reach vital organs is approximately 1.46 inches (37 mm).
Statistical modelling indicates that an average of 6 pellet impacts per bird are required to achieve a lethality probability close to 95%, assuming adequate penetration.
Shot Materials Considered
This analysis considers the following non-toxic shot materials:
- Steel (density 7.8 g/cm³)
- Bismuth (density ≈ 9.5 g/cm³)
- HEVI-Shot tungsten alloy (density ≈ 12 g/cm³)
- Tungsten Super Shot – TSS 18 (density 18 g/cm³)
Each material presents different penetration and pellet-count characteristics at distance.
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Steel Shot
The following tables analyze commonly available U.S. steel waterfowl loads in caliber 12, using a full choke pattern and identical lethality criteria for direct comparison.
12 ga 2¾” – 1 oz – 1450 fps
| Pellet | Max yd | Penetration | Hits / bird | Limiting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 38 | 2.1 | 6.1 | spread density |
| #2 | 45 | 1.8 | 6 | spread density |
| #3 | 50 | 1.5 | 6.2 | Optimal |
| #4 | 39 | 1.5 | 11 | Penetration |
| #5 | 28 | 1.5 | 14.6 | Penetration |
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Conclusion – 12 ga 2¾” – 1 oz – 1450 fps
Despite excellent penetration from larger pellet sizes, overall lethality is limited by pellet density at distance. Steel #3 emerges as the optimal choice by maintaining adequate penetration while preserving sufficient hit probability across the target surface.
12 ga 2¾” – 1-1/16 oz – 1550 fps
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Conclusion – 12 ga 2¾” – 1-1/16 oz – 1550 fps
Higher velocity improves usable range, but does not fundamentally change the penetration–density balance. Steel #3 provides the longest ethical range, with lethality becoming penetration-limited beyond approximately 53 yards.
12 ga 3″ – 1¼ oz @ 1450 fps
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Conclusion – 12 ga 3″ – 1¼ oz @ 1450 fps
Increased pellet count shifts the balance toward density rather than penetration. Steel #2 emerges as the optimal choice, offering the longest ethical range under full choke conditions.
12 ga 3½” – 1⅜ oz @ 1550 fps
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Conclusion – 12 ga 3½” – 1⅜ oz @ 1550 fps
Even with increased payload, pellet density ultimately limits extended-range performance. Steel #2 offers the longest ethical range, reaching about 55 yards under full choke conditions.
12 ga 3½” – 1½ oz @ 1500 fps
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Conclusion – 12 ga 3½” – 1½ oz @ 1500 fps
A heavier payload improves pellet count but does not fundamentally change the penetration–density balance. Steel #2 remains optimal, and maximum ethical range is similar to fast 3½” loads, with density still limiting performance at the extreme distances.
Both “fast” and “heavy” 3½” steel loads converge toward steel #2 as the optimal pellet size, with maximum ethical range capped in the mid-50-yard range by pellet density constraints.
Steel Load Comparison — Key takeaway
Ballistic modelling shows that, despite variations in velocity and payload, steel shot performance on mallards converges toward similar ethical limits. High-velocity 12ga 2¾” loads approach the performance of heavier 3″ and 3½” steel loads, with pellet density consistently emerging as the primary limiting factor at distance.
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Bismuth Load
Bismuth Shot Overview
Compared to steel, bismuth shot offers significantly higher density and improved penetration, allowing the use of smaller pellet sizes while maintaining lethality. This section analyzes common 12 ga 2¾” bismuth loads using the same ballistic and ethical criteria applied to steel for direct comparison.
Bismuth 12 ga 2¾” – 1⅛ oz 1350 fps
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Conclusion – 12 ga 2¾” (1⅛ oz @ 1350 fps)
Compared to steel, bismuth enables smaller pellet sizes while maintaining sufficient penetration. The optimal balance is reached with #4 or #5 shot, achieving nearly 50 yards of ethical range under full choke conditions.
Bismuth 12 ga 2¾” – 1¼ oz @ 1300 fps
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Conclusion – 12 ga 2¾” (1¼ oz @ 1300 fps)
Compared to standard bismuth loads, increased payload improves hit probability rather than penetration. Shot size #4 offers the best balance, reaching approximately 51 yards under full choke conditions.
Steel vs Bismuth — 12 ga 2¾” Comparison — Key takeaway
Ballistic modelling shows that modern high-velocity steel and bismuth loads achieve comparable maximum ethical ranges on mallards when fired from equivalent chokes. While steel may reach slightly farther distances with larger pellets, bismuth’s higher density allows the use of smaller pellet sizes while maintaining sufficient penetration.
In practice, the choice between steel and bismuth in 12ga 2¾” is driven less by maximum range than by shooting comfort, choke compatibility, and consistency. Bismuth offers increased margin for error through improved penetration, rather than a meaningful extension of ethical shooting distance.
HEVI-shot
HEVI-Shot Overview
HEVI-Shot occupies an intermediate position between bismuth and tungsten super shot. With a density around 12 g/cm³, it offers significantly improved penetration compared to steel and bismuth, while remaining more affordable than high-density TSS. The following analysis applies the same ballistic and ethical criteria used throughout this database for direct comparison.
12 ga 2¾” – 1¼ oz @ 1350 fps
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Conclusion – HEVI-Shot 12 ga 2¾” (1¼ oz @ 1350 fps)
With this load, #5 and #6 provide the best balance between penetration and pattern density for mallards.
The ethical limit is reached between 58 and 67 yards, primarily due to pattern density, not pellet energy.
Smaller pellets (#7 and below) remain penetration-capable but become penetration-limited at shorter distances, making them less suitable for extended-range shooting.
12 ga 3″ – 1⅜ oz @ 1350 fps
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Conclusion — HEVI-Shot 12 ga 3″ (1⅜ oz @ 1350 fps)
Increasing payload slightly extends usable range for medium pellet sizes, but does not alter the underlying limiting factors.
#5 remains pattern-density limited, while #6 becomes penetration-limited at longer distances.
Overall performance is most consistent with #4 to #6, within controlled and realistic ranges.
12ga 3½” – 1½ oz @ 1350 fps
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Conclusion — HEVI-Shot 12 ga 3½” (1½ oz @ 1350 fps)
The 3½” configuration improves pattern margin, but does not meaningfully extend maximum ethical range.
Medium pellet sizes (#4–#6) remain optimal, with limits reached due to pattern density or penetration, depending on pellet diameter.
Beyond approximately 65–70 yards, additional payload offers diminishing ballistic benefit.
HEVI-Shot — Key takeaway (Mallard)
Ballistic modelling confirms that HEVI-Shot delivers a clear penetration advantage over both steel and bismuth, allowing medium pellet sizes to remain lethal at extended distances. However, the data also demonstrate that increasing payload does not proportionally extend maximum ethical range on mallards.
Across all standard 12-gauge HEVI-Shot loads, ethical performance stabilizes around 65–70 yards, with pellet size — not shell length — remaining the dominant limiting factor. HEVI-Shot therefore provides greater consistency and margin, but does not remove the fundamental ballistic constraints that define ethical mallard shooting.
Ethical Shooting Considerations
Ethical shooting distances depend on a balance between pellet penetration, pellet density, and hit probability.
Beyond certain distances, even high-energy pellets may fail to deliver sufficient hit density for reliable lethality.
This database defines maximum ethical ranges, not maximum possible ranges, and should be read accordingly — especially when evaluating high-density materials.
TSS (18 density)
Tungsten Super Shot (TSS – 18 g/cm³) Overview
Tungsten Super Shot (TSS) with a density of approximately 18 g/cm³ represents the highest-density shot material commonly used for waterfowl hunting in the United States. This extreme density delivers unmatched penetration, allowing the use of very small pellet sizes while maintaining lethal performance at distances unreachable by steel, bismuth, or HEVI-Shot.
The following analysis applies the same ballistic and ethical criteria used throughout this database, in order to determine whether increased penetration translates into a meaningful extension of ethical shooting distance, or simply provides greater margin within existing limits.
12ga 3″ – 1½ oz @ 1300 fps
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Conclusion 12ga 3″ – 1½ oz @ 1300 fps
Ballistic modelling shows that TSS dramatically increases penetration, allowing very small pellet sizes to remain lethal at distances far beyond those achievable with steel, bismuth, or HEVI-Shot.
However, even at extreme density, ethical range is still defined by pattern density or penetration thresholds, not by pellet energy alone.
In this configuration, #6 to #8 provide the most consistent balance, with maximum ethical distances extending well beyond conventional ranges — yet remaining governed by the same fundamental ballistic constraints.
12 ga 3½” — 1⅝ oz @ 1250 fps
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Conclusion – 12 ga 3½” — 1⅝ oz @ 1250 fps
Increasing payload to a 3½” TSS load improves pattern margin and consistency, but does not fundamentally extend the maximum ethical range on mallards.
Across pellet sizes, ethical performance still converges toward the same upper limit, defined by pattern density for medium pellets and penetration thresholds for very small pellets.
TSS therefore amplifies responsibility rather than removing ballistic constraints, requiring disciplined shot selection despite exceptional penetration.
TSS (18 g/cm³) — Key takeaway
Ballistic modelling shows that TSS dramatically increases penetration, allowing very small pellet sizes to remain lethal at distances far beyond those achievable with steel, bismuth, or HEVI-Shot.
However, even at extreme density, ethical range is still defined by pattern density and penetration thresholds, not by pellet energy alone.Across both 3″ and 3½” loads, maximum ethical distance converges toward approximately 90 yards, with #6 to #8 offering the most consistent balance between penetration and hit probability.
TSS therefore provides exceptional margin and consistency, but demands heightened discipline, as increased ballistic capability does not eliminate ethical constraints.
Final Conclusion — Mallard Ballistics Overview
Across all materials analyzed — steel, bismuth, HEVI-Shot and TSS — ballistic modelling shows a clear progression in penetration, consistency, and margin, but a far more limited progression in maximum ethical shooting distance.
Steel remains the most cost-effective solution, offering reliable performance within realistic ranges when pellet size and velocity are properly selected. Modern high-velocity steel loads approach the ethical limits of heavier steel configurations, making them the most efficient choice for the majority of hunters.
Bismuth improves penetration and shooting comfort, allowing smaller pellet sizes and greater margin for error without meaningfully extending maximum range. Its value lies in consistency and flexibility, rather than raw ballistic gain.
HEVI-Shot further increases penetration and pattern reliability, particularly with medium pellet sizes. While it provides improved margin and tolerance, the data show that ethical range quickly stabilizes, and additional payload does not proportionally translate into longer effective distances.
TSS (18 g/cm³) represents the upper limit of commercially available shot density. It enables very small pellets to remain lethal at distances unattainable by other materials, yet even here, ethical range remains governed by pattern density and penetration thresholds, converging toward practical limits rather than expanding indefinitely.
Ultimately, the data suggest that the outer boundaries of ethical range are more constrained by shooter skill, distance judgment, and shot discipline than by cartridge performance itself. Beyond a certain point, improved ballistics increase responsibility rather than permission, reinforcing that ethical waterfowl hunting is defined as much by the hunter as by the load.
From a cost-effectiveness standpoint, steel provides the best performance-to-price ratio for most mallard hunting scenarios.
Bismuth and HEVI-Shot primarily buy margin and consistency, while TSS represents a specialized, high-cost solution whose benefits are only realized by disciplined shooters operating well within ethical limits.
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